It’s early afternoon on Friday. Dog & Partridge has been open for roughly 10 minutes, and already there’s a steady stream of punters trickling through its doors. Perhaps this should come as no surprise – it’s a sunny day, after all – and the longstanding Trippet Lane establishment is going for its third consecutive ‘Best Traditional Pub’ accolade at next month’s Exposed Awards.
However, as landlord Conor Smith explains, being busy isn’t enough to stave off the fears that keep him up at night as a business owner. “The problem is, even for pubs getting the footfall, you’re only ever two or three weeks of bad trade from serious difficulty. It’s a precarious situation – and that’s putting it mildly.”
“The margins just aren’t there like they used to be,” he continues, waving in another group of lunchtime punters. “People look at a full pub and assume it’s thriving. But once you strip it back, it’s a very different picture.”
The reasons stack up quickly. Some are familiar – energy, suppliers, wages – but the issue is how they land all at once. “It’s not just one thing going up. It’s everything moving together. And it all goes back out again as fast as it comes in.”
That last point matters. Turnover is not the same as profit, but much of the system treats it as if it is. Conor describes pubs as “tax collectors” – a line he half laughs at, but doesn’t take back.
VAT sits at the centre of that frustration. At 20%, it remains out of step with countries that have reduced rates for hospitality. “It’s one of the highest in Europe. Other places have cut it to support the trade. Here, it’s stayed where it is.”
For independent operators, there is a second problem. Even where there are industry bodies pushing for change, they do not always reflect businesses like his. “A lot of it is geared towards the bigger groups. Independents are a huge part of the trade, but we’re all separate. There’s no real collective weight behind us.”
Despite a clear commitment to paying fair wages, staffing has become more complicated – particularly since changes to national insurance. “It pushes you towards splitting hours between more people, which then affects consistency and how settled your team is.”
None of these decisions sit in isolation. They shape the experience for customers and, ultimately, the price of a pint.
“There’s a limit to what people think a pint should cost. You hear or read about it all the time – ‘it’s only gone up a few pence’. But that’s not how it works in practice.”
A small increase at source rarely stays small by the time it reaches the bar. “You end up adding 20p, not 3p. But people have read the headline, so they think you’re overcharging.”
Pubs become the visible end of a much longer chain – the point where frustration lands, even if the causes sit elsewhere.
Competing on price alone is not realistic in that context. The focus instead is on what happens once people are through the door. “You’ve got to give people a reason to be here. It’s about how they’re treated, how the place feels, whether they want to stay.”
There are limits to that approach. A well-run pub still operates within the same cost structure as everyone else, and some of the biggest pressures sit just ahead.
Business rates are the one that keeps coming up. A temporary relief scheme has kept bills manageable, but only for now.
“In three years’ time, if it goes back to where it was, I won’t be able to afford it. It’s as simple as that.”
If that scenario plays out across the sector, the effects will not be isolated. “You’ll see a lot of independents go. Chains will start cutting sites as well. It won’t just be one type of pub.”
At that point, the conversation moves beyond individual businesses. Jobs, suppliers and local spending are all tied into the same ecosystem – and all would be affected.
The tax issue surfaces again. Money kept within a business tends to be reinvested – in staff, equipment, upkeep. Money taken out as dividends is different. “Tax that, by all means,” he says. “But if you want businesses to survive, you’ve got to let them build something first.”
Alongside tax and rates, there are long-standing pressures within the trade itself. The ‘beer tie’ is one of them, requiring some tenants to buy stock from landlords at above-market rates. “You’re paying rent, and then you’re paying over the odds for your product as well. It just squeezes everything further.”
Attempts to loosen those arrangements have not always worked in practice and need revisiting. “They’ve found ways around it. Shorter agreements, different terms. It doesn’t always give you the freedom it’s supposed to.”
Taken together, the direction of travel is clear. Not a sudden collapse, but a gradual thinning out – fewer independents taking on pubs, more stepping away when the numbers stop working.
“A lot of people will look at it and think, is it worth the risk? And if they’ve got another option, they’ll take it.”
For readers, the message is straightforward.
“Use independent places. If you want them to be there, you’ve got to go to them.”
Not everyone is looking for what a pub offers, and that is unlikely to change. “If someone’s happy staying in with a few cans, they’re not your customer anyway. That’s fine.”
The concern sits with those who do value pubs but may not realise how narrow the margins have become.
“Every bit of spend matters more now. It all adds up.”
The bottom line is not empty pubs being the issue, but a model under strain. Costs continue to rise, pricing has limited room to follow and policy has yet to catch up with the reality on the ground.
“If things don’t change, it will look very different in a few years. It won’t happen all at once. But it will happen.”
