Is it because of heightened sensitivity around COVID-19 or is the current business scene really difficult to judge?
Restrictions on some industries inevitably lead to tough times for them, but then in other parts of the economy you get the feeling that firms and owners have never had it so good.
Even within sectors there are differences that are more than just the usual ‘winners and losers’ from competing businesses. No one seems to know for sure how and why things are happening as there are so many variables – COVID-19 and Brexit being just two of the most important.
It would be very easy to say things are looking good, or conversely that it’s not because everyone’s experiences are different.
Take the property market, for example. A Stamp Duty holiday for the past year – at various levels and with a separate saving for first time buyers – has led to a bubble in demand with everyone rushing to complete their deals before the first deadline at the end of June.
For estate agents and solicitors, this leaves them with very busy diaries during the first half of the year – but a significant slowdown afterwards.
It doesn’t mean people no longer want to move house, it’s just that everyone who was half thinking about a change of home this year has got on with it.
Anecdotally there are stories about the knock-on effects to removal companies, financial advisors and other associated property industries that there are simply not enough people in the system to cope with demand.
What comes next will be the interesting part. The media (without nuance) will begin to report a slowdown in the housing market, the public will then start having palpitations about reported falling house prices and potential negative equity.
And having created a surge in interest in buying and selling a home by pausing Stamp Duty for 12 months the government will feel under pressure to do something (anything) to create demand once again.
Now, that’s just one example. You can multiply that many times over as firms battle through COVID-19 restrictions and, in some cases, changes in trading conditions due to Brexit.
Nobody expects the economy to have fewer ripples than a mill pond but it sometimes feels like business owners are caught up in some very choppy waters.
At some point you’d like to think that things will settle down. However, the politicians and their advisors seem to be enjoying sticking their noses into people’s lives in ever new and innovative ways.
If only they got out of the way and left business to play by a consistent set of rules.
